There
are congressmen who see oil drilling hither and yon as the magical
answer to the high cost of fuel.
Then, there is T. Boone Pickens, the
Texas oilman from central casting
whose Pickens Plan would put the U.S. on a healthier energy diet with a
significantly smaller serving of oil.
The Pickens Plan would not be easy to
implement, but it's a terrific
example of the creative thinking that we need in order to fix our
country's energy predicament. That's more than can be said for the
tired ideas coming out of Congress.
The latest bromide to hit the airwaves
is "drill here, drill now, pay
less." The peddlers hope to convince Americans that a return to the
glory days of cheap and easy oil is just around the corner.
Don't be fooled. As Pickens the oilman
will tell any sloganeering
congressman who cares to listen, cheap and easy oil is a thing of the
past. Demand is up and low-cost pockets of black gold are increasingly
hard to come by.
It's time to try something new. The
Pickens Plan's centerpiece is to
substitute wind for natural gas for meeting some 20 percent of the
nation's electric power needs. In a recent report, the Department of
Energy said that boosting wind's share of power generation to 20
percent is doable.
The freed-up gas would then be
available to fuel automobiles, cutting oil imports by more than
one-third.
Pickens says his primary motive is to
reduce the drain of American
dollars to oil exporting regimes, which he calls "the greatest transfer
of wealth in the history of mankind."
The Pickens Plan would benefit his
sizable wind and natural gas
investments. But no one should begrudge Pickens the wealth that would
be his if the plan works.
Will it? That depends on many things
falling into place. First, wind
energy plants must beat the price of gas-fired generators. Wind is the
fastest growing energy source in the country, but investment will
plunge if Congress fails to renew production tax credits due to expire
at the end of the year.
The wind blows hard and steadily on
the western Great Plains. But few
people live there. Transmission lines would have to be built to ferry
the juice to big loads on the coasts. Utilities would have to figure
out the technicalities of integrating wind energy into their grids.
A fueling infrastructure for natural
gas-fueled cars would have to be
built up. Automakers would have to manufacture the cars and consumers
would have to be willing to buy them.
Pickens estimates that building the
wind turbines and transmission
lines would cost $1.2 trillion. It's a big number, but we spend that
much on foreign oil every 20 months.
As Pickens points out, his plan is not
a complete or permanent solution
for oil dependence. But if it works, it would serve as a bridge to a
more robust transportation system, with cars running partially or
entirely on electricity. The juice may come from on-board fuel cells,
or, perhaps more likely, from quick-charging batteries supplied by
wind, other renewables, nukes, or coal plants equipped to capture and
bury carbon dioxide.
The Pickens Plan is worth a serious
look. It's not a panacea, but there
is none to be found. The sooner we face that, the faster we can build
an energy economy that cuts our dependence on dangerous regimes, keeps
dollars at home, and helps us be better environmental stewards.